Ukraine Can Learn From Georgia, Another Country That Russia Invaded in 2008 – Adewale Adeyemo
Republicans/Trumpians play too much. Biden is doing what a similarly situated Republican president would have done.
When Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, Bush was the president. What did he do? Nothing. Russia quickly overwhelmed them. Ukrainians should talk to Georgians. Like Ukrainians, Georgians wanted to join NATO, but Russia said that would threaten its homeland. Putin never allowed them to join NATO. Before he agreed to leave Georgia, he carved out two republics: South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Bush was so frustrated that his threat of economic sanctions did not deter Putin. Like I told you earlier, sanctions do not deter great powers. Great powers believe that money can’t buy you security and peace of mind. A lot of countries in Europe are more economically powerful than Russia, but they can’t defend themselves, so NATO and America are their security guarantors. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) is more powerful than the German army. Earlier today, their military chief said it could barely fund itself, let alone help Ukraine (after WWII, Germany, which was the aggressor in the war, was demilitarized by Americans and Russians).
Putin already carved Crimea out of Ukraine (Obama asked Biden to supervise the sanctions against Putin at the time, but that did not deter Russia, so Biden is in familiar territory), but Ukraine, thinking Washington will welcome its ambition, was affirmatively taking steps to join NATO, amending its constitution to explicitly state its commitment to join NATO. That was a strategic blunder, followed by the West sending sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, which Russia had already destroyed in its first round of airstrikes.
Georgia saw the writing on the wall. Its attempt to join NATO elevated its security threats from Russia, so it reversed itself. Bush and other Western leaders did the same, and additional threats of war petered out.
Ukraine misread the West’s appetite for an avoidable war with another great power. America and European powers can’t help Ukraine to dissuade Russia.
Bush could not do it. Obama could not do it. Biden cannot do it.
Great powers end wars on their terms. Think of how America pulled out of Vietnam, Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan, and others.
Ukraine’s current president is a comedian by trade, so he probably doesn’t understand what John Mearsheimer termed “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.”
Apolitical people will start getting emotional, but war planners/realists at Moscow and Washington will continue updating their scenarios.
Let me quickly digress. If you don’t like history, skip the next three paragraphs.
These people/countries did not become great powers by shaking hands. America carved out Mexico, following the end of the Mexican-American war in 1848. Antonio de Santa Anna, the president of Mexico at the time, begged, having fought them on multiple occasions, Americans not to break his country, but America got away with New Mexico, California, and Texas.
Countries do not fear, or/and respect, Americans because they are nice and economically (sure, Americans are nice), for they fear/respect them because it is the only superpower in the world. Its military might is unparalleled. But, as an American-trained political scientist, I can tell you some facts about how America uses its powers. Soft power is the best power: win hearts and minds (that is why America invests a lot of money in the State Department, USAID, UNICEF, and other organizations). When natural disasters happen anywhere in the world, America will be the first country onsite. Behind that soft power, however, is HARD POWER. America doesn’t have to brag about it. It is there. With 13 supercarriers in different continents and robust military spending that dwarfs that of any country in the world, America can strategically deploy its war machine to anywhere in the world.
Still, there is a limit to that hard power. America doesn’t like to directly confront great powers, save for WWI and WWII. Russia is still a great power. I am not sure that China is ready to take the same risk: right now, China doesn’t want to mess with its economy, which is heavily dependent on European powers and America. Taiwan is not Ukraine. And China is not Russia, which is cashing out from this war: a barrel of oil is now over $100, and Russia is one of the biggest petrostates in the world.
Ukraine should understand that the world would like to see more products from Tesla and Apple, not an avoidable war between two great powers that have been managing different conflicts/wars for centuries. Before it is too late, Ukraine should learn from Georgia. Russia can’t perpetually occupy Ukraine, but a regime change might be underway.
Again, when Georgia realized that it was better to live peacefully with its powerful neighbor, foregoing its infatuation with NATO, everything changed: its relationship with Russia is now manageable.
Adewale Adeyemo is a Michigan based lawyer